Supply And Demand Southern Sumatra Robusta June 2015

Weather

Rainfall intensity until the beginning of Jun-15 on coffee plantation areas (lowland and highland of Southern Sumatra), lower than the previous month and hence, farmers at highland areas began to harvest the crop because cherries have been ready to pick.

Usually month of June is already in dry season at all areas in Southern Sumatran but according to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), during dry season, there will be possible for rain falls. At the moment, the weather in Southern Sumatra is generally hot in the morning and rain begin in the afternoon or evening with a low intensity and it is not affect to the maturity process of coffee cherries.

Harvesting Crop and Deliveries

By the end of week 23, about 33.2% of Southern Sumatra Robusta (equal to about 117,575 Mton) has been harvested where about 68.0% of them are coming from low land areas. Some of lowland areas are now in peak harvesting and some areas of this lowland almost to the end of the season.

About 49.1% of this harvested coffee has been delivered (equal to about 66,676 Mton) where 48,576 Mton of them were delivered to Bandar Lampung and the rest (about 18,100 Mton) were delivered to other areas and/or delivered to local roasters. That means, by the end of week 23, there were about 18.9% of total production of Southern Sumatra Robusta for this crop year, have been delivered.

If we compare total harvesting until end of week 23 (117,575 Mton) with total delivered (66,676 Mton), we could confirm that about 50,899 Mton of harvested crop still on the hand of Growers and Middlemen because they still believe that the price will still possible to increase.

From below table we can notice that total deliveries to Bandar Lampung of this new crop for the same duration (11 weeks from the starting of deliveries) of this new crop is higher 22.4% than last crop year.

Supply & Demand

Total export of Southern Sumatra Robusta from Panjang Port in May-2015 (25,223 Mton) is about 0.1% higher than total export during Apr-15 (25,197Mton) and this is much higher (about 110.2%) than a year ago in May-14 (12,000 Mton).

For 12 months year-on-year export volume from Panjang Port (YoY) of May-15 (269,040 Mton), it is about 17.7% lower than YoY of May-14 which was about 326,831 Mton.

Based on our records on Supply & Demand for Southern Sumatra Robusta as per 31-May-2015, we still believe that the exporters in Bandar Lampung are still holding some stock and our best guess, total stock in Bandar Lampung warehouses by the end of May-15 is about 26,415 Mton

Here is the detail of our records on S&D for Southern Sumatra Robusta: Updated S&D for new crop year 2015/2016 as on		:	31-May-15
Supplies
Carry-in from 2014/15			44,965
Production Southern Sumatra Robusta 2015-16			353,700
Total availability 2015-16			398,665
Disappearance
Exported  end of May 2015			50,420
Delivery to others or/and as graded coffee end of May 2015	15,100
Delivery to other areas outside Bandar Lampung	10,500		10,500
Delivered as graded coffee to exporters in Bandar Lampung	4,600
Total disappearance by end of May 2015			60,920
			337,745
Balance availability by end of May 2015
Distribution:
Stocks Exporter (incl. graded coffee purchases)			26,415
Stocks Upcountry collectors and farmers			41,450
Subtotal			67,865
Subtotal  On Tree			269,880
			76%

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