Southern Sumatra Robusta
September 2015
Weather
Weather in Southern Sumatra areas in August to September are predicted at the peak drought. This condition affects the lack of rains, although there is still rain but with very low intensity.
According to Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Biro appropriate August to September weather forecasts Southern Sumatra entering the peak dry season and hence within a few days later there is no rain fall. Drought conditions in Southern Sumatra will be longer than any other areas in Sumatra. This is because the different conditions in influencing on geographical location of Southern Sumatra and also the sea breeze that causes Southern Sumatran will be longer drought than in the Central Sumatra and surrounding area. In Southern Sumatra, some areas in Bengkulu at the end of August is estimated to have started rainfall but most areas of Southern Sumatra were predicted fastest rain fall than in some area in Bengkulu which is rain fall will come down at the end of September.
During peak dry cycle in this year, there is still local rainfall in some area of Southern Sumatra due to the influence of sea breezes that cause the surface temperature of the hot water that it will be evaporated into clouds and become rain after the clouds have been saturated.
Rainfall in dry season it has characteristic of uneven local rain with low intensity and scattered in several places at the same time which is still normal for Indonesia with this condition of season.
Harvesting Crop and Deliveries
By the end of week 37, about 89.1% of Southern Sumatra Robusta (equal to about 315,300 Mton) has been harvested. All of lowland areas are finish harvested and some areas of this lowland have been finished harvesting where total estimated crop production of lowland areas for this season is 111,175 Mton. While for the highlands, some areas have entered the end of pick and some areas the remaining crop will be harvested around Nov-15 which is the fly crop but the numbers are not a lot of.
By the end of week 37, around 255,715 Mton of this harvested coffee, have been delivered for 184,115 Mton to Bandar Lampung and the rest (about 71,600 Mton) were delivered to other areas and/or delivered to local roasters. That means, by the end of week 37, there were about 72.3% of total production of Southern Sumatra Robusta for this crop year, have been delivered.
If we compare total harvesting until end of week 37 (315,300 Mton) with total delivered (255,715 Mton), we could confirm that about 59,585 Mton of harvested crop still on the hand of Growers and Middlemen at upcountry and will be sold when the price high but some of them are still in drying process at the Growers premises.
Supply & Demand
Total export of Southern Sumatra Robusta from Panjang Port in Aug-15 (42,989 Mton) is about 1.3% higher than total export during Jul-15 (42,418 Mton) and this is much higher (about 66.3%) than a year ago in Aug-14 (25,855 Mton).
For 12 months year-on-year (YoY) export volume from Panjang Port of Aug-15 (315,472 Mton), it is about 14.3% higher than YoY of Aug-14 which was about 276,065 Mton.
Based on our records on Supply & Demand for Southern Sumatra Robusta as per 31-August-2015, we still believe that the exporters in Bandar Lampung are still holding some stock and our best guess, total stock in Bandar Lampung warehouses by the end of Aug-15 is about 76,880 Mton.
Salah satu penghasil kopi robusta di Indonesia yang terbaik yaitu daerah Sumatera, dengan hasil panen kopi robusta yang melimpah bisa memenuhi kebutuhan pasar lokal maupun internasional.
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